Which Small Business Industries Held Up Best in a Downturn?
Buyer School 2026 Industry Resilience Study, short version · Version 2026.1 · Published October 5, 2026
The short answer
Buyer School analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data found that health care practices, professional services and drug and beverage wholesalers held their jobs best through the 2008 to 2012 Great Recession and the 2020 COVID shock. Furniture, home goods, bookstores, apparel manufacturing and rental businesses did worst, and none of them had regained their pre-shock jobs by the end of the data. Home service trades sat in the middle or better, depending on the trade.
The study covers 152 industries where buying a small business is plausible. It measures jobs and employer locations across whole industries. It does not measure profit, price or whether any one business survived.
Three things worth knowing
- Surviving one shock did not predict surviving the other. Dentists lost no jobs from 2008 to 2012 and then lost 54% in April 2020. Personal care and restaurants also barely moved in 2008 to 2012, then lost 74% and 45%. Contractors went the other way: building equipment contractors lost 21% in the Great Recession but only 13% in COVID. The two rankings barely line up (correlation 0.14).
- Part of the strength is growth. Industries that were already growing before each shock tended to rank higher. Health care and professional services are on top partly because they were expanding, so a buyer should ask about the trend as well as the shock.
- Many industries never fully came back. 53 of 152 (35%) had not regained their 2007 jobs by March 2023. Printing, furniture and finishing contractors are examples.
For scale, total U.S. private jobs fell 7% in the Great Recession and 16% at the April 2020 trough.
Held up best (top 10 of 152)
| Industry | 2008 to 2012 job change | 2020 job change |
|---|---|---|
| Investment advice and related financial services (5239) | 0% | 0% |
| Other information services (5191) | 0% | 0% |
| IT consulting and computer services (5415) | 0% | -1% |
| Drug and medical supply wholesalers (4242) | 0% | -4% |
| Management and technical consulting (5416) | 0% | -4% |
| Outpatient care centers (6214) | 0% | -4% |
| Medical and diagnostic labs (6215) | 0% | -8% |
| Other outpatient health services (6219) | 0% | -4% |
| Physician offices (6211) | 0% | -10% |
| Accounting, tax and bookkeeping (5412) | 0% | -8% |
Hit hardest (bottom 10)
| Industry | 2008 to 2012 job change | 2020 job change |
|---|---|---|
| Bookstores and news dealers (4512) | -38% | -63% |
| Apparel sewing manufacturers (3152) | -36% | -41% |
| Consumer goods rental (5322) | -37% | -34% |
| General rental centers (5323) | -42% | -24% |
| Textile furnishings mills (carpets, curtains, linens) (3141) | -32% | -27% |
| Home furnishings stores (4422) | -30% | -42% |
| Land subdivision (2372) | -68% | -11% |
| Vending machine operators (4542) | -27% | -35% |
| Office supply, stationery and gift stores (4532) | -21% | -46% |
| Furniture stores (4421) | -28% | -33% |
Common acquisition targets
| Industry | 2008 to 2012 job change | 2020 job change |
|---|---|---|
| Home health care (6216) | 0% | -6% |
| Janitorial, landscaping and pest control (5617) | -4% | -11% |
| Dentists (6212) | 0% | -54% |
| Insurance agencies (5242) | -9% | -1% |
| Restaurants (7225) | -2% | -45% |
| Auto repair (8111) | -10% | -19% |
| HVAC, plumbing and electrical contractors (2382) | -21% | -13% |
| Printing (3231) | -27% | -20% |
Each row is a broad industry group, not one trade. HVAC cannot be separated from plumbing, and landscaping cannot be separated from janitorial or pest control, in these sources. The codes in brackets are NAICS industry codes.
What this does and does not tell you
- It shows how jobs behaved across an industry. A strong industry has weak businesses in it, and a weak industry has strong ones.
- A closing or shrinking location is not the same as a failed business.
- There is no profit, cash flow or valuation data here. Use it as one question to ask about a deal, not as a verdict.
- Two shocks are a small sample, and they hit very different industries. The next downturn may not look like either.
- Scores are relative within this list. They are not predictions.
Read the full study
The top and bottom of the overall ranking, each downturn on its own, recovery speed, industry profiles and the method. Type your email and the full study opens right away.
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How to cite
Buyer School (businessbuyerschool.com), "The Most Recession-Resistant Small Businesses to Buy: 2026 Industry Resilience Study," version 2026.1, https://businessbuyerschool.com/research/recession-resistant-businesses/.