Business Buyer School

Business Buyer School Research · Dataset · Version 2026.1

Establishment Durability Dataset 2026

167 U.S. industries at four digit NAICS: 152 ranked and 15 unranked low confidence.

Business Buyer School calculation and score. These rates describe whole industries, not any one business. An establishment exit is a location that closes, not a business failure, and a sold business is not an exit. They are not the chance that a business you buy will close.

Version 2026.1 published
October 6, 2026
Analysis prepared
October 6, 2026
Data window
Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, 2023 release: annual rates averaged over 2014 to 2023 (March 2013 to March 2023)
Scoring
Four components as percentile ranks among 152 industries; Model A weights 40, 25, 20 and 15

This is the data behind the full study and the short version. How it was built is on the methodology page. Unranked industries carry the lowest confidence tier and no rank; unranked is not a poor result.

Downloads

Checksums: SHA256SUMS.txt. A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome. The underlying Census Bureau statistics are published by that agency.

All 167 rows

All 167 industries in the dataset: 152 ranked and 15 unranked low confidence. Scores and ranks are Business Buyer School scores (Model A). Rates are annual averages for 2014 to 2023, Business Buyer School calculations from Census BDS.
RankNAICSIndustryConfidenceScore (Model A)Exit rateFirm shutdown rateJob destruction rateEntry rateStability
13321Forging and StampingMedium97.14.6%3.7%8.3%3.1%stable most durable quartile
23339Other General Purpose Machinery ManufacturingHigh95.15.1%3.9%7.6%4.8%stable most durable quartile
33353Electrical Equipment ManufacturingMedium92.66.2%4.4%7.2%4.6%stable most durable quartile
43255Paint, Coating, and Adhesive ManufacturingMedium92.05.4%4.3%8.2%4.9%stable most durable quartile
54441Building Material and Supplies DealersHigh90.74.9%5.3%5.8%4.5%stable most durable quartile
64237Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Merchant WholesalersHigh90.54.7%5.0%8.7%4.9%stable most durable quartile
73111Animal Food ManufacturingMedium90.04.5%4.7%8.9%5.8%stable most durable quartile
83328Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied ActivitiesHigh89.65.4%4.5%9.9%4.4%stable most durable quartile
98122Death Care ServicesHigh89.64.2%3.6%10.5%4.1%stable most durable quartile
103332Industrial Machinery ManufacturingMedium88.06.0%4.6%7.9%5.3%stable most durable quartile
114238Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant WholesalersHigh87.86.0%5.2%9.8%5.1%stable most durable quartile
126214Outpatient Care CentersHigh87.25.6%5.8%9.8%9.2%stable most durable quartile
134235Metal and Mineral (except Petroleum) Merchant WholesalersHigh87.06.1%5.1%9.8%4.4%stable most durable quartile
143335Metalworking Machinery ManufacturingHigh86.95.6%4.5%8.7%3.7%stable most durable quartile
154413Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire StoresHigh86.84.7%6.4%9.0%5.0%stable most durable quartile
163323Architectural and Structural Metals ManufacturingHigh86.66.0%4.7%9.0%5.9%stable most durable quartile
173121Beverage ManufacturingMedium86.56.3%5.0%8.7%14.7%stable most durable quartile
183329Other Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingHigh85.56.7%5.2%8.9%7.0%stable most durable quartile
193327Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt ManufacturingHigh84.86.3%4.9%9.8%4.6%stable most durable quartile
203333Commercial and Service Industry Machinery ManufacturingMedium83.17.1%5.4%8.6%5.8%stable most durable quartile
214245Farm Product Raw Material Merchant WholesalersHigh82.85.3%5.3%12.4%5.2%stable most durable quartile
223273Cement and Concrete Product ManufacturingHigh82.64.8%4.5%11.0%5.4%stable most durable quartile
236212Offices of DentistsHigh80.25.9%5.3%11.6%5.9%stable most durable quartile
244442Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies StoresHigh79.66.2%5.9%10.5%6.1%stable most durable quartile
254248Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant WholesalersHigh78.77.3%6.9%7.3%8.3%stable most durable quartile
264246Chemical and Allied Products Merchant WholesalersHigh78.66.4%5.4%10.3%5.0%stable most durable quartile
273259Other Chemical Product and Preparation ManufacturingMedium78.37.3%6.1%9.5%6.6%stable most durable quartile
283256Soap, Cleaning Compound, and Toilet Preparation ManufacturingMedium77.17.4%6.1%8.9%8.0%moderate
293279Other Nonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingMedium76.66.3%4.8%9.9%6.0%stable most durable quartile
303113Sugar and Confectionery Product ManufacturingMedium76.07.6%6.3%8.5%7.8%moderate
314231Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Merchant WholesalersHigh76.07.0%6.9%9.6%6.3%stable most durable quartile
323211Sawmills and Wood PreservationMedium75.56.8%5.8%8.4%6.4%moderate
334247Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant WholesalersHigh75.15.9%4.8%13.1%5.3%moderate
342373Highway, Street, and Bridge ConstructionHigh74.97.1%4.9%11.5%6.4%stable most durable quartile
353372Office Furniture (including Fixtures) ManufacturingMedium74.87.2%5.6%9.7%5.6%moderate
363119Other Food ManufacturingMedium74.47.7%6.6%8.3%11.6%moderate
375622Waste Treatment and DisposalMedium73.55.5%6.8%9.2%7.5%moderate
384233Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant WholesalersHigh72.66.3%5.9%10.1%7.0%moderate
395621Waste CollectionHigh71.26.5%7.0%8.4%7.8%moderate
404453Beer, Wine, and Liquor StoresHigh70.37.2%6.3%12.9%8.2%moderate
415411Legal ServicesHigh70.08.2%6.5%10.5%7.7%moderate
424236Household Appliances and Electrical and Electronic Goods Merchant WholesalersHigh69.67.5%6.8%11.4%6.1%moderate
433219Other Wood Product ManufacturingHigh68.47.5%6.1%9.7%8.2%moderate
444412Other Motor Vehicle DealersHigh68.47.1%6.1%10.4%7.2%moderate
456213Offices of Other Health PractitionersHigh68.37.7%6.1%13.3%10.7%moderate
463272Glass and Glass Product ManufacturingMedium67.47.9%6.5%7.6%6.5%moderate
474241Paper and Paper Product Merchant WholesalersHigh66.58.0%6.4%10.7%4.8%moderate
485629Remediation and Other Waste Management ServicesHigh64.57.8%6.3%14.1%9.7%moderate
494244Grocery and Related Product Merchant WholesalersHigh64.38.3%7.2%9.9%8.5%moderate
504471Gasoline StationsHigh62.16.7%7.6%12.2%6.6%moderate
514461Health and Personal Care StoresHigh62.06.8%8.2%11.7%7.0%moderate
524411Automobile DealersHigh61.78.1%7.3%8.8%8.5%moderate
538113Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and MaintenanceHigh61.78.2%6.5%13.0%8.5%moderate
544232Furniture and Home Furnishing Merchant WholesalersHigh61.18.0%6.7%10.8%6.7%moderate
556211Offices of PhysiciansHigh60.98.3%7.4%11.9%8.9%moderate
563231Printing and Related Support ActivitiesHigh60.58.4%6.8%11.3%6.0%moderate
572382Building Equipment ContractorsHigh60.08.1%6.0%12.0%9.9%moderate
583391Medical Equipment and Supplies ManufacturingHigh59.28.7%7.5%8.7%6.4%moderate
597212RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational CampsMedium59.28.0%5.9%14.6%9.0%moderate
605323General Rental CentersMedium57.48.2%6.4%12.8%7.2%moderate
613371Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet ManufacturingHigh56.98.5%6.5%9.3%7.1%moderate
625242Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related ActivitiesHigh56.88.7%6.8%13.2%9.0%moderate
635413Architectural, Engineering, and Related ServicesHigh56.78.5%6.4%11.6%9.5%moderate
644422Home Furnishings StoresHigh56.47.8%6.7%11.9%6.0%moderate
653399Other Miscellaneous ManufacturingHigh55.58.9%6.8%10.5%9.4%moderate
664249Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant WholesalersHigh55.28.4%7.6%11.4%7.9%moderate
672371Utility System ConstructionHigh55.28.0%5.8%15.0%8.4%moderate
674885Freight Transportation ArrangementHigh55.28.5%7.0%11.9%9.1%moderate
696239Other Residential Care FacilitiesMedium54.68.3%5.9%13.1%9.6%moderate
706219Other Ambulatory Health Care ServicesMedium54.28.3%6.9%12.9%10.6%moderate
714242Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant WholesalersHigh54.08.4%8.2%10.8%8.1%moderate
728111Automotive Repair and MaintenanceHigh54.08.4%7.0%13.4%9.0%moderate
734451Grocery StoresMedium53.88.5%9.0%7.8%9.3%moderate
745151Radio and Television BroadcastingHigh52.58.5%5.8%12.0%5.8%moderate
755324Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental and LeasingHigh52.27.5%7.3%13.9%9.2%moderate
763118Bakeries and Tortilla ManufacturingHigh52.09.1%7.9%10.2%10.7%moderate
777211Traveler AccommodationHigh52.08.4%7.3%12.9%9.3%moderate
783141Textile Furnishings MillsMedium50.18.6%6.9%11.2%5.3%moderate
795412Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll ServicesHigh49.98.8%6.8%12.2%9.3%moderate
803149Other Textile Product MillsHigh49.98.9%6.9%10.8%7.9%moderate
816244Child Day Care ServicesHigh49.28.6%7.7%12.3%9.4%moderate
824483Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods StoresHigh49.07.9%6.9%14.2%6.3%moderate
835417Scientific Research and Development ServicesHigh47.511.0%8.6%9.6%13.2%method-sensitive
844421Furniture StoresHigh47.08.1%8.2%12.3%7.5%moderate
854239Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant WholesalersHigh45.89.7%7.9%12.7%9.0%moderate
866216Home Health Care ServicesMedium45.59.6%8.7%12.5%12.6%moderate
874482Shoe StoresHigh44.47.5%8.8%13.3%4.2%moderate
886115Technical and Trade SchoolsHigh42.89.2%7.1%14.8%9.9%moderate
895239Other Financial Investment ActivitiesHigh41.98.8%7.9%11.9%11.9%moderate
904511Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument StoresHigh41.48.7%8.3%12.5%8.1%moderate
912379Other Heavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionHigh41.49.1%6.2%14.3%10.9%moderate
922362Nonresidential Building ConstructionHigh40.99.3%6.9%13.2%9.4%moderate
935321Automotive Equipment Rental and LeasingHigh40.87.4%10.1%13.1%9.0%method-sensitive
944533Used Merchandise StoresHigh40.78.5%9.3%12.2%8.1%moderate
954234Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant WholesalersHigh38.99.9%7.3%11.7%8.0%moderate
965313Activities Related to Real EstateHigh38.19.8%7.8%13.0%12.5%moderate
977225Restaurants and Other Eating PlacesHigh37.68.9%9.3%14.0%10.5%moderate
985616Investigation and Security ServicesHigh37.210.5%8.1%13.2%10.6%moderate
992389Other Specialty Trade ContractorsHigh36.610.1%6.7%13.4%13.2%moderate
1004543Direct Selling EstablishmentsHigh36.410.2%9.0%13.7%10.8%moderate
1015619Other Support ServicesHigh36.010.0%7.7%14.7%11.0%moderate
1026215Medical and Diagnostic LaboratoriesHigh35.89.0%8.9%14.3%14.1%moderate
1035419Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesHigh35.610.5%8.0%13.5%12.3%moderate
1045111Newspaper, Periodical, Book, and Directory PublishersHigh35.29.9%8.0%14.4%6.7%moderate
1055311Lessors of Real EstateHigh34.69.0%8.7%15.1%10.1%moderate
1067139Other Amusement and Recreation IndustriesHigh34.410.0%8.6%13.7%12.2%moderate
1078112Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and MaintenanceHigh34.411.1%9.1%13.6%9.9%moderate
1084884Support Activities for Road TransportationMedium34.210.9%8.9%14.1%13.6%moderate
1098123Drycleaning and Laundry ServicesHigh32.59.7%8.6%13.4%7.6%moderate
1104539Other Miscellaneous Store RetailersHigh32.19.2%8.9%13.4%13.2%moderate
1116116Other Schools and InstructionHigh31.710.3%8.0%15.8%13.0%moderate
1125112Software PublishersHigh30.110.9%9.5%10.7%15.3%moderate
1135418Advertising, Public Relations, and Related ServicesHigh29.711.3%9.2%13.7%11.3%moderate
1147113Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar EventsMedium29.110.3%7.3%16.1%12.5%moderate
1154512Book Stores and News DealersHigh27.88.7%9.1%16.7%6.6%moderate
1164531FloristsHigh27.310.4%8.3%16.5%8.5%moderate
1175617Services to Buildings and DwellingsHigh26.711.8%8.6%14.2%14.3%moderate
1186114Business Schools and Computer and Management TrainingMedium26.312.0%8.7%14.5%12.9%moderate
1194481Clothing StoresHigh26.09.0%10.9%14.5%7.5%moderate
1204243Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant WholesalersHigh24.611.4%9.3%13.9%9.6%stable least durable quartile
1218114Personal and Household Goods Repair and MaintenanceHigh24.311.4%8.7%15.3%12.6%stable least durable quartile
1225614Business Support ServicesHigh23.411.1%9.5%16.4%10.0%stable least durable quartile
1232381Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior ContractorsHigh22.611.2%7.5%16.1%13.4%stable least durable quartile
1245191Other Information ServicesMedium22.512.1%10.4%12.2%14.6%stable least durable quartile
1252372Land SubdivisionMedium21.610.8%8.4%15.1%9.7%stable least durable quartile
1262383Building Finishing ContractorsHigh19.911.6%8.1%16.0%13.6%stable least durable quartile
1274251Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersHigh19.411.9%9.5%14.3%10.5%stable least durable quartile
1284541Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order HousesMedium18.813.3%10.9%12.9%18.8%stable least durable quartile
1294532Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift StoresHigh18.710.8%10.3%16.2%7.8%stable least durable quartile
1304842Specialized Freight TruckingHigh18.512.0%9.6%14.5%12.9%stable least durable quartile
1314452Specialty Food StoresHigh18.210.8%9.2%16.9%12.0%stable least durable quartile
1324841General Freight TruckingHigh18.013.8%11.9%11.6%19.4%stable least durable quartile
1335223Activities Related to Credit IntermediationMedium17.910.6%9.3%15.3%9.1%stable least durable quartile
1344542Vending Machine OperatorsMedium17.812.3%11.0%12.7%10.4%stable least durable quartile
1357131Amusement Parks and ArcadesMedium17.314.0%12.5%11.2%16.3%stable least durable quartile
1365414Specialized Design ServicesHigh16.412.5%8.9%15.1%14.7%stable least durable quartile
1375416Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting ServicesHigh16.315.2%11.8%15.9%18.7%stable least durable quartile
1388121Personal Care ServicesHigh16.211.6%9.8%17.4%14.3%stable least durable quartile
1397224Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)High15.411.4%8.9%18.4%10.8%stable least durable quartile
1405312Offices of Real Estate Agents and BrokersHigh15.012.3%8.3%16.2%18.0%stable least durable quartile
1415121Motion Picture and Video IndustriesHigh13.813.4%10.3%18.4%15.1%stable least durable quartile
1425415Computer Systems Design and Related ServicesMedium12.514.0%10.8%14.3%15.0%stable least durable quartile
1435182Data Processing, Hosting, and Related ServicesHigh12.512.4%9.2%14.8%12.9%stable least durable quartile
1445322Consumer Goods RentalHigh12.311.2%10.3%17.2%7.9%stable least durable quartile
1454431Electronics and Appliance StoresHigh12.212.0%10.9%14.7%5.8%stable least durable quartile
1468129Other Personal ServicesHigh11.712.2%9.7%17.1%17.0%stable least durable quartile
1475615Travel Arrangement and Reservation ServicesHigh6.516.1%9.0%18.2%11.8%stable least durable quartile
1482361Residential Building ConstructionHigh5.914.3%10.0%17.7%18.5%stable least durable quartile
1497223Special Food ServicesHigh5.013.0%12.8%17.9%15.7%stable least durable quartile
1505179Other TelecommunicationsMedium3.614.6%12.9%16.5%16.8%stable least durable quartile
1513152Cut and Sew Apparel ManufacturingHigh2.417.5%15.1%21.4%14.6%stable least durable quartile
1524853Taxi and Limousine ServiceHigh0.418.9%14.7%20.7%18.8%stable least durable quartile
unranked3132Fabric MillsLow70.37.1%5.8%9.6%5.2%not tested
unranked3133Textile and Fabric Finishing and Fabric Coating MillsLow47.38.9%7.1%10.7%7.0%not tested
unranked3169Other Leather and Allied Product ManufacturingLow41.39.8%8.1%10.5%9.5%not tested
unranked3253Pesticide, Fertilizer, and Other Agricultural Chemical ManufacturingLow85.26.1%4.9%7.8%7.1%not tested
unranked3271Clay Product and Refractory ManufacturingLow68.67.6%6.4%8.3%6.6%not tested
unranked3322Cutlery and Handtool ManufacturingLow88.26.2%4.7%8.0%5.7%not tested
unranked3325Hardware ManufacturingLow87.95.9%4.5%7.3%5.6%not tested
unranked3326Spring and Wire Product ManufacturingLow89.04.8%4.1%8.9%3.2%not tested
unranked3351Electric Lighting Equipment ManufacturingLow60.18.5%6.6%10.6%7.2%not tested
unranked3379Other Furniture Related Product ManufacturingLow67.07.1%5.9%11.4%5.7%not tested
unranked4859Other Transit and Ground Passenger TransportationLow9.014.0%11.6%15.5%17.1%not tested
unranked4872Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, WaterLow13.812.6%8.8%17.5%15.4%not tested
unranked5122Sound Recording IndustriesLow12.413.5%9.7%15.9%15.0%not tested
unranked7114Agents and Managers for Artists, Athletes, Entertainers, and Other Public FiguresLow12.613.1%9.4%15.3%15.9%not tested
unranked7213Rooming and Boarding Houses, Dormitories, and Workers' CampsLow31.69.2%7.1%19.1%7.1%not tested

Field notes

167 rows (152 ranked, 15 unranked). Rates in percent, four decimals. Low-confidence rows carry only the headline columns.

ColumnDescription
rankRank by Model A among High and Medium confidence industries; blank if unranked.
ranking_statusranked / unranked low confidence.
naics_44-digit NAICS 2017.
official_industry_nameCensus/NAICS title.
parent_sector2-digit sector.
confidenceHigh/Medium/Low tier (Report 1 rules).
confidence_basisRule that set the tier.
durability_score_model_ABusiness Buyer School score 0-100, higher more durable.
score_B_exit_heavyModel B score.
score_C_firm_job_heavyModel C score.
score_D_equalModel D score.
score_E_exit_rates_onlyModel E score.
rank_B_exit_heavyRank, Model B.
rank_C_firm_job_heavyRank, Model C.
rank_D_equalRank, Model D.
rank_E_exit_rates_onlyRank, Model E.
rank_F_zscore_winsorisedRank, Model F.
rank_range_across_modelsMax minus min rank across six models.
stability_classstable most/least durable quartile, moderate, method-sensitive.
share_weight_draws_top_quartileShare of 3,000 weight draws in the most durable quartile.
comp_exit_rate_10yr_pctileComponent percentile.
comp_firm_shutdown_pctileComponent percentile.
comp_job_destruction_pctileComponent percentile.
comp_exit_volatility_pctileComponent percentile.
establishment_exit_rate_avg_2014_2023_pctAverage of annual BDS establishment exit rates 2014-2023, percent.
establishment_exit_rate_avg_2019_2023_pctSame, 2019-2023.
establishment_exit_rate_avg_2014_2019_pctSame, 2014-2019.
establishment_exit_rate_avg_2004_2023_pctSame, 2004-2023.
firm_shutdown_rate_avg_2014_2023_pctAverage annual firm deaths over mean firm count, percent.
job_destruction_rate_avg_2014_2023_pctAverage BDS job destruction rate, percent.
job_destruction_from_exits_rate_avg_2014_2023_pctAverage rate of jobs lost at exiting establishments, percent.
exit_rate_volatility_sd_2004_2023_ppStandard deviation of annual exit rate, percentage points.
establishment_entry_rate_avg_2014_2023_pctAverage annual establishment entry rate (context, not scored).
exit_rate_minus_total_private_ppIndustry exit rate minus total private average, percentage points.
establishments_2023BDS establishments, March 2023.
employment_2023BDS employment, March 2023.
firms_2023BDS firms, March 2023.
employees_per_establishment_2023Employment / establishments.
establishments_exited_2014_2023_cumulativeSum of annual exits 2014-2023.
establishment_stock_2013Establishments, March 2013.
flagsData-quality flags.
naics_versionNAICS version.
source_versionSource release.
calculation_versionScoring code version.
package_versionPackage version.
run_dateRun date.

How to cite

Cite as: Business Buyer School, Establishment Durability Dataset 2026, https://businessbuyerschool.com/research/small-business-exit-rates/data/. Version 2026.1. Published October 6, 2026.

A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome.

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