Business Buyer School Research · Full study · Version 2026.1
Which Small Businesses Last the Longest?
U.S. Establishment Exit and Industry Durability Study
Business Buyer School 2026 Industry Durability Study, full study · Version 2026.1 · Published October 6, 2026 · Prepared October 6, 2026. These rates describe whole industries, not any one business. An establishment exit is a location that closes, not a business failure, and a sold business is not an exit. They are not the chance that a business you buy will close.
Short version · Full study · Methodology · Data · About the school
Key Finding
Business Buyer School analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics data found that, among 152 acquisition-relevant U.S. industries, establishment exit rates ranged from 4.2% a year (Death Care Services) to 18.9% a year (Taxi and Limousine Service) over 2014 to 2023, against 9.1% for the whole private sector. The lowest-exit industries are mainly metal and equipment manufacturing, building material, plumbing and industrial wholesale and retail, and funeral services. The highest-exit industries are low-barrier service, travel, taxi and apparel industries. An establishment exit is not a business failure, and these rates are not the chance that a newly bought business will close.
Key Statistics
- Business Buyer School calculated that the average annual establishment exit rate for the whole U.S. private sector was 9.1% over 2014 to 2023 (Census BDS), and that the median of the 152 ranked industries was 8.5%.
- Business Buyer School calculated that the highest industry exit rate (18.9%) was 4.5 times the lowest (4.2%).
- Business Buyer School calculated that 92 of 152 ranked industries had an exit rate below the private-sector average.
- Business Buyer School calculated that the median industry firm shutdown rate was 7.3% a year and the median job destruction rate was 12.4% a year over 2014 to 2023.
- Business Buyer School calculated a Spearman rank correlation of 0.81 between industries' exit rates and entry rates: industries where many establishments close are also industries where many open, so exit rate is largely a measure of turnover.
- Business Buyer School calculated a Spearman rank correlation of 0.06 between the Business Buyer School Durability Score and the Business Buyer School Recession Resistance Score (Report 1) across the same 152 industries: durability and recession resistance are close to independent.
- Business Buyer School calculated that 30 industries stayed in the most durable quartile and 33 in the least durable quartile under all six scoring methods; 2 were method-sensitive.
- Business Buyer School calculated that industries with larger establishments tended to score as more durable (Spearman 0.43 with employees per establishment).
- Business Buyer School calculated that exit rates were higher in 2019 to 2023 than in 2014 to 2019 in 118 of 152 industries.
- Business Buyer School calculated that an entry-adjusted rescore (exit rates net of each industry's entry rate) keeps 20 of the top 25 and correlates 0.89 with the main ranking.
Each statistic is a Business Buyer School calculation from official statistics. The Census Bureau publishes the underlying counts; Business Buyer School performed all averaging, scoring and ranking.
What Is and Is Not Measured
- Establishment exit (Census BDS): an establishment, meaning one physical location, present in March of one year and gone in March of the next. A location can close because the owner retired, the lease ended, or a chain consolidated.
- Firm shutdown (Census BDS): a firm all of whose establishments exit.
- Not measured: business failure, loss, bankruptcy, or whether a sale changed ownership (BDS follows establishments through ownership changes, so a sold business is not an exit).
- Not the odds for a new buyer. These are annual rates across all existing establishments. They carry no age split at the 4-digit level, so this study cannot say how much of any rate comes from young establishments. Other BDS age tables are known to show young establishments exiting more often, but that is outside this study's data. A buyer acquiring an established business faces a rate this study does not measure, and whether it is lower than the industry figure is untested here.
Overall Ranking
Business Buyer School scores (0 to 100, higher is more durable) combine four components as percentile ranks across the 152 ranked industries. Model A weights: average annual establishment exit rate 2014 to 2023, 40%; firm shutdown rate, 25%; job destruction rate, 20%; volatility of the annual exit rate 2004 to 2023, 15%. Read the raw rates first: the score is a summary.
Most durable 25
| Rank | Industry (NAICS 2017) | Confidence | Durability score | Avg annual establishment exit rate 2014 to 2023 | Avg annual firm shutdown rate | Avg annual job destruction rate | Avg annual entry rate | Stability across models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3321 Forging and Stamping | Medium | 97.1 | 4.6% | 3.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | stable most durable quartile |
| 2 | 3339 Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing | High | 95.1 | 5.1% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 4.8% | stable most durable quartile |
| 3 | 3353 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing | Medium | 92.6 | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | stable most durable quartile |
| 4 | 3255 Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing | Medium | 92.0 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 4.9% | stable most durable quartile |
| 5 | 4441 Building Material and Supplies Dealers | High | 90.7 | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | stable most durable quartile |
| 6 | 4237 Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers | High | 90.5 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 4.9% | stable most durable quartile |
| 7 | 3111 Animal Food Manufacturing | Medium | 90.0 | 4.5% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | stable most durable quartile |
| 8 | 3328 Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities | High | 89.6 | 5.4% | 4.5% | 9.9% | 4.4% | stable most durable quartile |
| 9 | 8122 Death Care Services | High | 89.6 | 4.2% | 3.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | stable most durable quartile |
| 10 | 3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing | Medium | 88.0 | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 5.3% | stable most durable quartile |
| 11 | 4238 Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers | High | 87.8 | 6.0% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 5.1% | stable most durable quartile |
| 12 | 6214 Outpatient Care Centers | High | 87.2 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | stable most durable quartile |
| 13 | 4235 Metal and Mineral (except Petroleum) Merchant Wholesalers | High | 87.0 | 6.1% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 4.4% | stable most durable quartile |
| 14 | 3335 Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing | High | 86.9 | 5.6% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% | stable most durable quartile |
| 15 | 4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores | High | 86.8 | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | stable most durable quartile |
| 16 | 3323 Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing | High | 86.6 | 6.0% | 4.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% | stable most durable quartile |
| 17 | 3121 Beverage Manufacturing | Medium | 86.5 | 6.3% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 14.7% | stable most durable quartile |
| 18 | 3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing | High | 85.5 | 6.7% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | stable most durable quartile |
| 19 | 3327 Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing | High | 84.8 | 6.3% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 4.6% | stable most durable quartile |
| 20 | 3333 Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing | Medium | 83.1 | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | stable most durable quartile |
| 21 | 4245 Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers | High | 82.8 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 12.4% | 5.2% | stable most durable quartile |
| 22 | 3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing | High | 82.6 | 4.8% | 4.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | stable most durable quartile |
| 23 | 6212 Offices of Dentists | High | 80.2 | 5.9% | 5.3% | 11.6% | 5.9% | stable most durable quartile |
| 24 | 4442 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores | High | 79.6 | 6.2% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 6.1% | stable most durable quartile |
| 25 | 4248 Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers | High | 78.7 | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | stable most durable quartile |
Least durable 15
| Rank | Industry (NAICS 2017) | Confidence | Durability score | Avg annual establishment exit rate 2014 to 2023 | Avg annual firm shutdown rate | Avg annual job destruction rate | Avg annual entry rate | Stability across models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 4853 Taxi and Limousine Service | High | 0.4 | 18.9% | 14.7% | 20.7% | 18.8% | stable least durable quartile |
| 151 | 3152 Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing | High | 2.4 | 17.5% | 15.1% | 21.4% | 14.6% | stable least durable quartile |
| 150 | 5179 Other Telecommunications | Medium | 3.6 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 16.5% | 16.8% | stable least durable quartile |
| 149 | 7223 Special Food Services | High | 5.0 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 15.7% | stable least durable quartile |
| 148 | 2361 Residential Building Construction | High | 5.9 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 17.7% | 18.5% | stable least durable quartile |
| 147 | 5615 Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services | High | 6.5 | 16.1% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 11.8% | stable least durable quartile |
| 146 | 8129 Other Personal Services | High | 11.7 | 12.2% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 17.0% | stable least durable quartile |
| 145 | 4431 Electronics and Appliance Stores | High | 12.2 | 12.0% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 5.8% | stable least durable quartile |
| 144 | 5322 Consumer Goods Rental | High | 12.3 | 11.2% | 10.3% | 17.2% | 7.9% | stable least durable quartile |
| 143 | 5182 Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services | High | 12.5 | 12.4% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 12.9% | stable least durable quartile |
| 142 | 5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services | Medium | 12.5 | 14.0% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 15.0% | stable least durable quartile |
| 141 | 5121 Motion Picture and Video Industries | High | 13.8 | 13.4% | 10.3% | 18.4% | 15.1% | stable least durable quartile |
| 140 | 5312 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers | High | 15.0 | 12.3% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 18.0% | stable least durable quartile |
| 139 | 7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) | High | 15.4 | 11.4% | 8.9% | 18.4% | 10.8% | stable least durable quartile |
| 138 | 8121 Personal Care Services | High | 16.2 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 14.3% | stable least durable quartile |
All 152 ranked industries and 15 unranked low-confidence industries are in the dataset.
Churn: Why Exit Rate Is Partly Entry Rate
Industries with high exit also have high entry. Business Buyer School calculated an entry-rate average of 5.7% in the 25 most durable industries and 14.1% in the 25 least durable. This is consistent with low-barrier industries where small operators open and close often (Business Buyer School interpretation, not an official finding). The entry-adjusted rescore moved these industries up the most: 5312 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers (rank 140 to 84), 5112 Software Publishers (rank 112 to 62), 4841 General Freight Trucking (rank 132 to 85), 8129 Other Personal Services (rank 146 to 99).
Durable Is Not the Same as Recession Resistant
Report 1 ranked industries by how employment held up in the Great Recession and COVID. The two studies disagree about many industries. Management, scientific and technical consulting ranks 5 of 152 for recession resistance and 137 of 152 for durability. Forging and stamping, the most durable industry here, ranks 130 of 152 for recession resistance. Business Buyer School calculated a Spearman correlation of 0.06 between the two scores.
Common Acquisition Targets
| Industry (NAICS 2017) | What is in it | Durability rank of 152 | Confidence | Avg annual exit rate | Avg annual firm shutdown rate | Avg annual entry rate | Recession resistance rank of 152 (Report 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6212 Offices of Dentists | Dentists | 23 | High | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 33 |
| 3231 Printing and Related Support Activities | Printing | 56 | High | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 137 |
| 2382 Building Equipment Contractors | HVAC, plumbing and electrical contractors | 57 | High | 8.1% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 92 |
| 5242 Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities | Insurance agencies | 62 | High | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 35 |
| 8111 Automotive Repair and Maintenance | Auto repair | 72 | High | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 68 |
| 5412 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services | Accounting, tax and bookkeeping | 79 | High | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10 |
| 6216 Home Health Care Services | Home health care | 86 | Medium | 9.6% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 15 |
| 7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places | Restaurants | 97 | High | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 60 |
| 8123 Drycleaning and Laundry Services | Dry cleaning and laundry | 109 | High | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 126 |
| 5617 Services to Buildings and Dwellings | Janitorial, landscaping and pest control | 117 | High | 11.8% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 24 |
| 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services | Management and technical consulting | 137 | High | 15.2% | 11.8% | 18.7% | 5 |
Private-sector average exit rate for comparison: 9.1%. Each row is a 4-digit industry group, not one trade; HVAC cannot be separated from plumbing, or landscaping from janitorial or pest control, in these sources.
Business Buyer School calculated that dentists (6212) had an average annual establishment exit rate of 5.9%, ranking 23 of 152, and that building equipment contractors (2382) had 8.1%, ranking 57. Business Buyer School calculated that services to buildings and dwellings (5617) had 11.8% and a firm shutdown rate of 8.6%.
What Buyers Should Learn
- Industry exit rates describe churn, not your risk. Industries where many establishments open also tend to be industries where many close (Spearman 0.81). This study has no age split, so it cannot show how much of the rate comes from start-ups. Ask how old the specific business is and how long its customers have stayed.
- A low exit rate is not a safe investment. It says nothing about margins, price or debt.
- Do not equate a high exit rate with failure. Locations close for many reasons.
- Durability and recession resistance answer different questions. Check both, and what kind of shock each tests.
- The industries with the lowest exit rates are heavy on equipment, inventory and customer relationships. Whether that explains the pattern is untested here.
- Four-digit groups mix trades. The result for the group is not the result for the trade.
Methodology
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, 2023 release, national, 4-digit NAICS 2017 vintage-consistent series. Universe, confidence tiers and exclusion rules are the Report 1 rules (152 ranked, 15 unranked, 167 included, 121 excluded). Components are percentile ranks; five alternative scoring models and a 3,000-draw weight test were run. A BDS year is a March to March change, so the year labelled 2014 covers March 2013 to March 2014 and the 2014 to 2023 average spans March 2013 to March 2023; establishment, firm and employment counts are March snapshots. Census suppresses some BDS cells with a 'D'; none falls in a column used for an included industry. For 4451 and 4541, BDS 2023 re-matched establishments from 2015 on, which can affect their exit rates, so they are capped at Medium confidence. Full formulas, red-team review and limitations: the methodology page.
Data Download
The dataset behind this study is on the data page: all 167 industry rows as CSV and JSON, with a checksum file, field notes and the reuse wording. Rates carry four decimals so the figures in the full report reproduce from the file. A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, 2023 release: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/bds.html (files at https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/bds/tables/time-series/2023/)
- Report 1 of this series for the industry universe and confidence tiers (Business Buyer School, version 2026.1).
How to cite
Cite as: Business Buyer School, Which Small Businesses Last the Longest? U.S. Establishment Exit and Industry Durability Study (full study), https://businessbuyerschool.com/research/small-business-exit-rates/full-report/. Version 2026.1. Published October 6, 2026.
Data: Business Buyer School Establishment Durability Dataset 2026, version 2026.1.
Please cite the website and the version number. Figures labelled "Business Buyer School calculated" or "Business Buyer School score" are original calculations from the public source listed above; the Census Bureau is not responsible for them.
A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome.
Take this into your own search
Industry research is context, not a verdict on any one business. These free parts of the school show how to use it.
- Write your Buy Box: set the type of business, size and hard exclusions before you search.
- Cleaning, landscaping and HVAC compared: how the same principles show up in three trades.
- See the curriculum or start free with Business Buyer School.