Business Buyer School Research · Short version · Version 2026.1
Which Small Business Industries Last the Longest?
Business Buyer School 2026 Industry Durability Study, short version · Version 2026.1 · Published October 6, 2026. These rates describe whole industries, not any one business. An establishment exit is a location that closes, not a business failure, and a sold business is not an exit. They are not the chance that a business you buy will close.
Every number is on the open full study: Short version · Full study · Methodology · Data.
The short answer
Business Buyer School analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data found that, across 152 industries where buying a small business is plausible, the share of business locations that close each year runs from 4.2% to 18.9%. The median industry is about 8.5%. Metal and equipment manufacturing, building material and industrial wholesale and retail, and funeral services close least. Taxi, apparel, travel, caterer and home builder industries close most.
This counts locations that close, not business failures. A location closes when an owner retires, a lease ends or a chain consolidates, and a sale does not count as a closure.
Three things worth knowing
- Closing and opening go together. Industries where many locations close are also industries where many open (correlation 0.81). A high rate goes with a lot of opening and closing. This study cannot split out start-ups, and a high rate does not by itself mean a business model that does not work.
- Lasting a long time and holding up in a recession are different. The durability ranking and the Report 1 recession ranking barely line up (correlation 0.06). Consulting held its jobs well in both shocks yet ranks 137 of 152 for durability.
- These are not your odds. The rates cover every location of every age, start-ups included. A buyer of an established business faces a rate this study does not measure, so it cannot say whether that rate is lower than the industry figure.
For scale, about 9.1% of U.S. private-sector locations closed each year from 2014 to 2023.
Longest lasting (top 10 of 152)
| Industry | Establishments closing per year | Opening per year |
|---|---|---|
| Forging and stamping shops (3321) | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| General purpose machinery makers (3339) | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Electrical equipment makers (transformers, motors, switchgear) (3353) | 6.2% | 4.6% |
| Paint, coating and adhesive makers (3255) | 5.4% | 4.9% |
| Building material and home improvement dealers (4441) | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| Plumbing, heating and hardware wholesalers (4237) | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| Animal feed makers (3111) | 4.5% | 5.8% |
| Metal coating, engraving and heat treating shops (3328) | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| Funeral homes and cemeteries (8122) | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Industrial machinery makers (3332) | 6.0% | 5.3% |
Shortest lasting (bottom 10)
| Industry | Establishments closing per year | Opening per year |
|---|---|---|
| Taxi and limousine services (4853) | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| Apparel sewing manufacturers (3152) | 17.5% | 14.6% |
| Other telecommunications (5179) | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| Caterers and food service contractors (7223) | 13.0% | 15.7% |
| Residential home builders (2361) | 14.3% | 18.5% |
| Travel agencies and reservation services (5615) | 16.1% | 11.8% |
| Other personal services (8129) | 12.2% | 17.0% |
| Electronics and appliance stores (4431) | 12.0% | 5.8% |
| Consumer goods rental (5322) | 11.2% | 7.9% |
| Data processing and hosting (5182) | 12.4% | 12.9% |
Common acquisition targets
| Industry | Establishments closing per year | Opening per year |
|---|---|---|
| Dentists (6212) | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Printing (3231) | 8.4% | 6.0% |
| HVAC, plumbing and electrical contractors (2382) | 8.1% | 9.9% |
| Insurance agencies (5242) | 8.7% | 9.0% |
| Auto repair (8111) | 8.4% | 9.0% |
| Accounting, tax and bookkeeping (5412) | 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Home health care (6216) | 9.6% | 12.6% |
| Restaurants (7225) | 8.9% | 10.5% |
| Janitorial, landscaping and pest control (5617) | 11.8% | 14.3% |
| Management and technical consulting (5416) | 15.2% | 18.7% |
Each row is a broad industry group, not one trade. HVAC cannot be separated from plumbing, and landscaping cannot be separated from janitorial or pest control, in these sources. Codes in brackets are NAICS industry codes.
What this does and does not tell you
- It shows how often locations close across an industry. A long-lasting industry contains weak businesses, and a short-lasting one contains strong ones.
- There is no profit, cash flow or price data here.
- A low closure rate does not make an industry a safe buy.
- The rates are averages for 2014 to 2023, including the COVID years.
Read the full study
Every table, the key statistics, what is and is not measured and the method. It is open to read, with no sign up.
How this was measured
Business Buyer School calculated each industry's average annual establishment exit, firm shutdown and job destruction rate over 2014 to 2023 from Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, added a measure of how much the exit rate varies, and turned the four into a 0 to 100 durability score using percentile ranks among the 152 ranked industries. Five other weightings were tested. The methodology has the sources, formulas, exclusions and limits, and the data page has the table and downloads.
How to cite
Cite as: Business Buyer School, Which Small Businesses Last the Longest? U.S. Establishment Exit and Industry Durability Study, https://businessbuyerschool.com/research/small-business-exit-rates/. Version 2026.1. Published October 6, 2026.
A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome.
Take this into your own search
Industry research is context, not a verdict on any one business. These free parts of the school show how to use it.
- Write your Buy Box: set the type of business, size and hard exclusions before you search.
- Cleaning, landscaping and HVAC compared: how the same principles show up in three trades.
- See the curriculum or start free with Business Buyer School.