Business Buyer School Research · Dataset · Version 2026.1

Recession Resistance Dataset 2026

Name: Business Buyer School Recession Resistance Dataset 2026
Creator: Business Buyer School
Published: 2026-10-05

167 U.S. industries at four digit NAICS: 152 ranked and 15 unranked low confidence, with the 288 code industry universe behind them.

Business Buyer School calculation and score. Scores, ranks, drawdowns and recoveries are calculated by Business Buyer School from Census Bureau BDS and BLS QCEW data. They describe whole industries, not any one business, and are not predictions or a measure of profit or failure.

Version 2026.1 published: October 5, 2026
Analysis prepared: October 4, 2026
Great Recession data: Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, 2023 release (March 2007 to March 2023)
COVID data: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, monthly employment, 2018 to 2025 (2025 provisional)

This is the data behind the full study and the short version. How it was built is on the methodology page. Unranked industries carry the lowest confidence tier and no rank; unranked is not a poor result.

Downloads

Recession Resistance Dataset 2026, 167 industries (CSV) text/csv
Recession Resistance Dataset 2026 (JSON) application/json
Industry universe, 288 codes with inclusion decisions and reasons (CSV) text/csv
Industry universe (JSON) application/json

Checksums: SHA256SUMS.txt. A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome. The underlying Census Bureau and BLS statistics are published by those agencies.

All 167 industries

All 167 industries in the dataset: 152 ranked and 15 unranked low confidence. Scores and ranks are Business Buyer School scores (Model A); drawdowns and recovery are Business Buyer School calculations from Census BDS and BLS QCEW. Tied scores share a rank (4441 and 7211 both rank 66).
Rank	NAICS	Industry	Confidence	Score (Model A)	Great Recession job change	Great Recession recovery (years)	COVID job change	COVID recovery (months)	Stability
1	5239	Other Financial Investment Activities	High	87.2	0.0%	no decline	0.0%	no decline	stable top quartile
2	5191	Other Information Services	Medium	87.2	0.0%	no decline	0.0%	no decline	stable top quartile
3	5415	Computer Systems Design and Related Services	Medium	86.1	0.0%	no decline	-0.9%	4	stable top quartile
4	4242	Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers	High	85.9	0.0%	no decline	-3.5%	7	stable top quartile
5	5416	Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services	High	84.0	0.0%	no decline	-3.8%	7	stable top quartile
6	6214	Outpatient Care Centers	High	83.8	0.0%	no decline	-4.4%	6	stable top quartile
7	6215	Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories	High	82.6	0.0%	no decline	-7.6%	6	stable top quartile
8	6219	Other Ambulatory Health Care Services	Medium	82.2	0.0%	no decline	-4.2%	19	stable top quartile
9	6211	Offices of Physicians	High	82.1	0.0%	no decline	-9.6%	8	stable top quartile
10	5412	Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services	High	80.7	0.0%	no decline	-7.5%	10	stable top quartile
11	4451	Grocery Stores	Medium	79.9	-0.8%	5	-1.0%	2	stable top quartile
12	4453	Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores	High	79.5	0.0%	no decline	-12.6%	5	stable top quartile
13	4248	Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers	High	79.2	-1.0%	4	-5.0%	21	stable top quartile
14	3119	Other Food Manufacturing	Medium	79.0	-0.5%	3	-4.3%	7	stable top quartile
15	6216	Home Health Care Services	Medium	79.0	0.0%	no decline	-6.3%	20	stable top quartile
16	5616	Investigation and Security Services	High	77.5	0.0%	no decline	-10.0%	25	stable top quartile
17	5112	Software Publishers	High	77.1	-2.0%	4	0.0%	no decline	stable top quartile
18	3111	Animal Food Manufacturing	Medium	74.9	-4.0%	7	0.0%	no decline	stable top quartile
19	6213	Offices of Other Health Practitioners	High	74.6	0.0%	no decline	-21.2%	11	stable top quartile
20	5313	Activities Related to Real Estate	High	73.6	-4.9%	7	-4.1%	8	stable top quartile
21	4245	Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers	High	73.6	-0.8%	6	-4.9%	19	stable top quartile
22	4541	Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses	Medium	73.0	-8.0%	5	-5.3%	3	stable top quartile
23	5621	Waste Collection	High	72.8	-5.1%	7	-3.0%	5	stable top quartile
24	5617	Services to Buildings and Dwellings	High	72.7	-3.7%	5	-11.0%	4	stable top quartile
25	5417	Scientific Research and Development Services	High	72.5	-10.4%	9	0.0%	no decline	stable top quartile
26	4884	Support Activities for Road Transportation	Medium	72.0	-1.8%	4	-11.7%	8	stable top quartile
27	5629	Remediation and Other Waste Management Services	High	70.0	-5.4%	4	-8.7%	15	stable top quartile
28	4236	Household Appliances and Electrical and Electronic Goods Merchant Wholesalers	High	69.9	-1.2%	4	-6.3%	25	moderate
29	5419	Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services	High	69.1	-0.6%	7	-11.3%	7	stable top quartile
30	4471	Gasoline Stations	High	69.0	-5.1%	7	-7.4%	16	stable top quartile
31	5182	Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services	High	68.8	-4.7%	4	0.0%	no decline	moderate
32	6116	Other Schools and Instruction	High	68.4	0.0%	no decline	-38.2%	25	moderate
33	6212	Offices of Dentists	High	67.5	0.0%	no decline	-54.3%	12	moderate
34	8129	Other Personal Services	High	67.0	0.0%	no decline	-42.6%	25	moderate
35	5242	Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities	High	66.9	-9.0%	9	-1.4%	5	moderate
36	5311	Lessors of Real Estate	High	66.7	-4.8%	6	-8.0%	27	moderate
37	4244	Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers	High	66.1	-3.2%	8	-9.2%	27	moderate
38	5411	Legal Services	High	66.0	-4.6%	not recovered	-5.1%	15	method-sensitive
39	8121	Personal Care Services	High	64.9	0.0%	no decline	-73.5%	39	moderate
40	5413	Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services	High	64.9	-9.8%	7	-3.3%	14	moderate
41	6244	Child Day Care Services	High	64.7	0.0%	no decline	-33.3%	32	moderate
42	7223	Special Food Services	High	64.3	0.0%	no decline	-55.6%	30	moderate
43	8122	Death Care Services	High	64.0	-2.1%	5	-9.9%	19	moderate
44	4238	Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers	High	63.9	-9.9%	6	-5.8%	25	moderate
45	8113	Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance	High	62.7	-4.1%	6	-9.3%	19	moderate
46	3256	Soap, Cleaning Compound, and Toilet Preparation Manufacturing	Medium	62.5	-14.5%	14	-5.0%	5	moderate
47	3121	Beverage Manufacturing	Medium	62.3	-7.3%	5	-19.6%	13	moderate
48	4413	Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores	High	62.0	-4.0%	5	-10.7%	24 (annual data)	moderate
49	7212	RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps	Medium	61.1	-5.0%	5	-44.9%	4	moderate
50	4461	Health and Personal Care Stores	High	60.6	-5.5%	8	-16.6%	19	moderate
51	4234	Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers	High	60.4	-12.0%	not recovered	-2.9%	16	moderate
52	7113	Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events	Medium	60.4	0.0%	no decline	-61.1%	29	moderate
53	6114	Business Schools and Computer and Management Training	Medium	60.0	-7.9%	12	-7.4%	12	moderate
54	4885	Freight Transportation Arrangement	High	59.5	-11.5%	8	-6.3%	16	moderate
55	7131	Amusement Parks and Arcades	Medium	59.0	0.0%	no decline	-77.0%	16	moderate
56	4452	Specialty Food Stores	High	58.7	0.0%	no decline	-24.9%	20	moderate
57	7139	Other Amusement and Recreation Industries	High	58.6	-3.8%	5	-59.3%	16	moderate
58	4237	Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers	High	58.2	-17.3%	10	-4.7%	14	moderate
59	4533	Used Merchandise Stores	High	58.0	0.0%	no decline	-57.3%	24 (annual data)	moderate
60	7225	Restaurants and Other Eating Places	High	57.9	-2.4%	5	-44.7%	27	moderate
61	6115	Technical and Trade Schools	High	57.6	-7.8%	3	-21.3%	19	moderate
62	4239	Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers	High	57.3	-8.4%	5	-15.4%	19	moderate
63	4246	Chemical and Allied Products Merchant Wholesalers	High	56.2	-10.1%	7	-4.1%	28	moderate
64	4231	Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers	High	56.1	-9.7%	8	-9.8%	23	moderate
65	4841	General Freight Trucking	High	55.9	-14.0%	9	-7.6%	16	moderate
66	4441	Building Material and Supplies Dealers	High	55.2	-14.4%	11	0.0%	no decline	method-sensitive
66	7211	Traveler Accommodation	High	55.2	-6.1%	5	-54.8%	not recovered	moderate
68	8111	Automotive Repair and Maintenance	High	54.7	-9.7%	9	-19.0%	16	moderate
69	2379	Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction	High	54.5	-11.2%	5	-8.4%	18	moderate
70	4442	Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores	High	53.8	-12.2%	14	-4.4%	12	moderate
71	4251	Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers	High	52.9	-2.2%	6	-10.7%	33	method-sensitive
72	5622	Waste Treatment and Disposal	Medium	52.7	-20.6%	12	-1.8%	17	moderate
73	4539	Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers	High	52.6	-9.5%	8	-21.5%	9	moderate
74	3391	Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing	High	52.0	-8.5%	16	-9.9%	21	moderate
75	5324	Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental and Leasing	High	51.9	-12.6%	6	-17.4%	25	moderate
76	3339	Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing	High	51.7	-17.2%	8	-7.7%	25	moderate
77	4247	Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers	High	51.7	-3.9%	not recovered	-7.1%	not recovered	method-sensitive
78	3118	Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing	High	51.6	-6.5%	9	-18.9%	20	moderate
79	3113	Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing	Medium	50.9	-10.2%	6	-17.2%	8	method-sensitive
80	5614	Business Support Services	High	50.3	-5.8%	11	-10.7%	not recovered	moderate
81	5418	Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services	High	49.8	-9.4%	7	-14.4%	27	moderate
82	5121	Motion Picture and Video Industries	High	48.0	-9.7%	7	-55.2%	20	moderate
83	3329	Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing	High	47.0	-12.7%	not recovered	-9.7%	33	moderate
84	3255	Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing	Medium	46.6	-21.4%	14	-7.4%	20	moderate
85	4543	Direct Selling Establishments	High	46.6	-18.5%	not recovered	-9.4%	9	moderate
86	2371	Utility System Construction	High	46.5	-13.9%	8	-11.3%	30	moderate
87	4249	Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers	High	46.4	-12.3%	not recovered	-8.4%	25	moderate
88	4511	Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores	High	46.3	-8.9%	6	-42.8%	8	moderate
89	4481	Clothing Stores	High	45.2	-5.4%	4	-70.8%	not recovered	moderate
90	4842	Specialized Freight Trucking	High	44.9	-15.1%	12	-10.7%	28	moderate
91	5179	Other Telecommunications	Medium	44.4	-24.6%	15	-0.1%	15	method-sensitive
92	2382	Building Equipment Contractors	High	44.4	-20.7%	11	-12.8%	13	moderate
93	4853	Taxi and Limousine Service	High	43.7	-11.2%	5	-53.0%	46	moderate
94	7224	Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)	High	43.1	-2.4%	7	-74.4%	26	moderate
95	8112	Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance	High	41.5	-19.6%	not recovered	-8.3%	21	moderate
96	5312	Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers	High	41.2	-31.1%	13	-8.2%	7	method-sensitive
97	5151	Radio and Television Broadcasting	High	41.0	-15.5%	not recovered	-10.9%	24 (annual data)	moderate
98	3323	Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing	High	40.4	-25.1%	16	-8.7%	23	moderate
99	5223	Activities Related to Credit Intermediation	Medium	40.2	-30.8%	not recovered	-2.0%	4	method-sensitive
100	3279	Other Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing	Medium	40.0	-24.8%	12	-12.2%	25	moderate
101	5414	Specialized Design Services	High	39.7	-18.7%	15	-15.8%	16	moderate
102	3333	Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing	Medium	39.0	-17.6%	not recovered	-9.7%	not recovered	moderate
103	4235	Metal and Mineral (except Petroleum) Merchant Wholesalers	High	37.8	-15.5%	not recovered	-10.6%	not recovered	moderate
104	4233	Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant Wholesalers	High	37.7	-32.2%	not recovered	-7.1%	13	moderate
105	2389	Other Specialty Trade Contractors	High	37.7	-29.8%	10	-13.5%	3	method-sensitive
106	3332	Industrial Machinery Manufacturing	Medium	37.6	-28.5%	not recovered	-7.4%	16	moderate
107	8114	Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance	High	37.0	-17.7%	16	-24.8%	14	moderate
108	3259	Other Chemical Product and Preparation Manufacturing	Medium	36.8	-19.3%	not recovered	-7.7%	not recovered	moderate
109	3353	Electrical Equipment Manufacturing	Medium	36.6	-19.6%	not recovered	-7.3%	33	moderate
110	5619	Other Support Services	High	36.4	-18.1%	16	-22.6%	30	moderate
111	3273	Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing	High	36.0	-35.4%	not recovered	-6.9%	15	moderate
112	2373	Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction	High	35.9	-19.9%	not recovered	-18.4%	14	moderate
113	6239	Other Residential Care Facilities	Medium	35.9	-13.9%	not recovered	-8.5%	52	moderate
114	3219	Other Wood Product Manufacturing	High	35.7	-35.6%	not recovered	-8.4%	9	moderate
115	4411	Automobile Dealers	High	35.3	-18.1%	9	-21.2%	not recovered	moderate
116	4482	Shoe Stores	High	34.8	-6.6%	7	-51.1%	not recovered	moderate
117	4232	Furniture and Home Furnishing Merchant Wholesalers	High	34.4	-21.8%	not recovered	-16.4%	23	moderate
118	3149	Other Textile Product Mills	High	33.8	-18.6%	not recovered	-21.4%	not recovered	moderate
119	2362	Nonresidential Building Construction	High	32.7	-25.0%	not recovered	-12.8%	27	moderate
120	2361	Residential Building Construction	High	31.9	-41.5%	16	-14.4%	5	method-sensitive
121	4241	Paper and Paper Product Merchant Wholesalers	High	31.3	-15.8%	not recovered	-12.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
122	3211	Sawmills and Wood Preservation	Medium	30.7	-30.5%	not recovered	-6.8%	23	moderate
123	2381	Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors	High	30.0	-42.1%	not recovered	-12.9%	3	moderate
124	3399	Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing	High	29.9	-25.9%	not recovered	-22.0%	25	moderate
125	3327	Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing	High	29.5	-18.1%	not recovered	-13.1%	not recovered	moderate
126	8123	Drycleaning and Laundry Services	High	29.4	-15.8%	not recovered	-30.0%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
127	4412	Other Motor Vehicle Dealers	High	29.1	-29.3%	15	-19.4%	13	moderate
128	3328	Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities	High	29.0	-21.0%	not recovered	-14.2%	not recovered	moderate
129	4431	Electronics and Appliance Stores	High	28.9	-16.8%	not recovered	-13.1%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
130	3321	Forging and Stamping	Medium	28.5	-19.0%	not recovered	-17.5%	not recovered	moderate
131	4243	Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant Wholesalers	High	27.2	-17.9%	not recovered	-28.3%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
132	3272	Glass and Glass Product Manufacturing	Medium	26.7	-18.8%	not recovered	-18.5%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
133	3372	Office Furniture (including Fixtures) Manufacturing	Medium	25.7	-28.1%	not recovered	-16.4%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
134	5615	Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services	High	24.3	-13.3%	not recovered	-41.4%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
135	3335	Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing	High	23.5	-22.1%	not recovered	-15.0%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
136	2383	Building Finishing Contractors	High	22.8	-37.0%	not recovered	-19.3%	27	stable bottom quartile
137	3231	Printing and Related Support Activities	High	22.2	-26.8%	not recovered	-19.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
138	5111	Newspaper, Periodical, Book, and Directory Publishers	High	20.3	-33.4%	not recovered	-18.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
139	3371	Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturing	High	19.2	-39.0%	not recovered	-24.1%	20	stable bottom quartile
140	5321	Automotive Equipment Rental and Leasing	High	18.6	-24.6%	not recovered	-29.5%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
141	4483	Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores	High	18.3	-20.8%	not recovered	-46.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
142	4531	Florists	High	18.0	-31.7%	not recovered	-47.1%	20	stable bottom quartile
143	4421	Furniture Stores	High	17.8	-28.1%	not recovered	-32.9%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
144	4532	Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores	High	17.0	-20.5%	not recovered	-45.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
145	4542	Vending Machine Operators	Medium	16.0	-27.1%	not recovered	-34.9%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
146	2372	Land Subdivision	Medium	15.3	-68.1%	not recovered	-11.4%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
147	4422	Home Furnishings Stores	High	14.2	-30.2%	not recovered	-41.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
148	3141	Textile Furnishings Mills	Medium	13.9	-32.2%	not recovered	-26.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
149	5323	General Rental Centers	Medium	13.0	-42.3%	not recovered	-24.0%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
150	5322	Consumer Goods Rental	High	10.2	-36.6%	not recovered	-34.2%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
151	3152	Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing	High	10.0	-36.5%	not recovered	-40.6%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
152	4512	Book Stores and News Dealers	High	7.7	-37.7%	not recovered	-62.5%	not recovered	stable bottom quartile
unranked	3132	Fabric Mills	Low	14.6	-34.2%	not recovered	-19.7%	not recovered	not tested
unranked	3133	Textile and Fabric Finishing and Fabric Coating Mills	Low	17.1	-31.9%	not recovered	-22.6%	not recovered	not tested
unranked	3169	Other Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing	Low	25.3	-25.1%	not recovered	-24.4%	9	not tested
unranked	3253	Pesticide, Fertilizer, and Other Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing	Low	79.1	-4.5%	5	0.0%	no decline	not tested
unranked	3271	Clay Product and Refractory Manufacturing	Low	20.4	-33.3%	not recovered	-17.1%	not recovered	not tested
unranked	3322	Cutlery and Handtool Manufacturing	Low	25.9	-28.7%	not recovered	-11.7%	25	not tested
unranked	3325	Hardware Manufacturing	Low	25.6	-34.4%	not recovered	-11.7%	not recovered	not tested
unranked	3326	Spring and Wire Product Manufacturing	Low	21.9	-24.7%	not recovered	-15.6%	not recovered	not tested
unranked	3351	Electric Lighting Equipment Manufacturing	Low	33.1	-23.2%	not recovered	-13.9%	not recovered	not tested
unranked	3379	Other Furniture Related Product Manufacturing	Low	26.3	-29.3%	not recovered	-25.6%	6	not tested
unranked	4859	Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation	Low	65.5	0.0%	no decline	-30.7%	56	not tested
unranked	4872	Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water	Low	48.4	-8.8%	5	-67.5%	15	not tested
unranked	5122	Sound Recording Industries	Low	60.6	-7.8%	7	-9.5%	19	not tested
unranked	7114	Agents and Managers for Artists, Athletes, Entertainers, and Other Public Figures	Low	57.1	-3.1%	6	-28.8%	29	not tested
unranked	7213	Rooming and Boarding Houses, Dormitories, and Workers' Camps	Low	42.8	-5.2%	5	-33.5%	not recovered	not tested

Industry universe

The industry universe: 288 four digit NAICS codes, 167 included and 121 excluded by structural rules that read no outcome
Rule	Applies to	Industries excluded
U1	Not acquirable as an operating small business (farming, mining, utilities, regulated finance and similar)	25
U2	Nonprofit, government, religious or public service dominated, or licensed gaming and franchise assets	23
U3	Infrastructure, common carrier, telecom, port, rail, pipeline and network industries	15
U4	Mean employees per firm above 75 in 2007 or 2019	42
U5	Owner practitioner industries (3.5 or fewer employees per firm)	1
U6	Fewer than 500 establishments or 5,000 employees in any year 2007 to 2023	15

The full list of 288 codes, with each decision and reason, is in the universe file above.

Field notes

One row per industry (167 rows: 152 ranked, 15 unranked low confidence). Percent columns are in percent (−20.7 means −20.7%). Drawdowns are 0 or negative.

Column	Description
`rank`	Rank by Model A score among High and Medium confidence industries; ties share a rank; blank for unranked low-confidence industries.
`ranking_status`	ranked or unranked low confidence.
`naics_4`	4-digit NAICS code, 2017 vintage (BDS).
`official_industry_name`	Census/NAICS industry title.
`buyer_school_industry_note`	Plain-English description of buyer-relevant contents of the 4-digit code (not a statistic).
`parent_sector`	Two-digit NAICS sector name.
`confidence`	High / Medium / Low tier (methodology Section 5).
`confidence_basis`	Rule that set the tier.
`recession_resistance_score_model_A`	Business Buyer School score 0 to 100, higher more resilient; weights in methodology Section 7.
`score_B_drawdown_heavy`	Score under Model B.
`score_C_recovery_heavy`	Score under Model C.
`score_D_equal_weights`	Score under Model D.
`score_E_employment_only`	Score under Model E.
`rank_B_drawdown_heavy`	Rank under Model B.
`rank_C_recovery_heavy`	Rank under Model C.
`rank_D_equal_weights`	Rank under Model D.
`rank_E_employment_only`	Rank under Model E.
`rank_F_zscore_winsorised`	Rank under Model F (winsorised z-scores).
`rank_range_across_models`	Max rank minus min rank across the six models.
`stability_class`	stable top quartile / stable bottom quartile / moderate / method-sensitive.
`share_of_weight_draws_in_top_quartile`	Share of 3,000 random weightings (Dirichlet around Model A) in which the industry is in the top quartile.
`comp_gr_employment_drawdown_pctile`	Component percentile, Great Recession employment drawdown.
`comp_gr_establishment_drawdown_pctile`	Component percentile, Great Recession establishment drawdown.
`comp_gr_recovery_pctile`	Component percentile, Great Recession employment recovery time.
`comp_covid_employment_drawdown_pctile`	Component percentile, COVID employment drawdown.
`comp_covid_establishment_drawdown_pctile`	Component percentile, COVID establishment drawdown.
`comp_covid_recovery_pctile`	Component percentile, COVID employment recovery time.
`comp_volatility_pctile`	Component percentile, long-run volatility (lower volatility scores higher).
`gr_employment_2007_bds`	BDS employment, March 2007.
`gr_employment_trough_bds`	Lowest BDS employment, March 2008 to 2012.
`gr_employment_trough_year`	Year of that trough; blank if no decline.
`gr_employment_drawdown_pct`	min(0, trough/2007 − 1) in percent.
`gr_employment_recovery_year`	First year after trough with employment at or above 2007.
`gr_employment_recovery_years_from_2007`	Recovery year minus 2007; 0 = no decline.
`gr_employment_recovery_status`	recovered / no decline observed / not recovered during observation period (through 2023).
`gr_establishments_2007_bds`	BDS establishments, March 2007.
`gr_establishments_trough_bds`	Lowest BDS establishments 2008 to 2012.
`gr_establishment_drawdown_pct`	Establishment drawdown in percent.
`gr_establishment_recovery_year`	First year after trough at or above 2007.
`gr_establishment_recovery_status`	Status as above.
`covid_employment_baseline_2019_qcew_avg`	QCEW private employment, mean of 12 monthly 2019 values.
`covid_employment_trough_qcew`	Lowest QCEW monthly employment, March 2020 to December 2021.
`covid_employment_trough_month`	Month of that trough (YYYY-MM).
`covid_employment_drawdown_pct`	min(0, trough/baseline − 1) in percent.
`covid_employment_recovery_month`	First month after trough at or above baseline.
`covid_employment_recovery_months_from_mar2020`	Months from March 2020 to recovery; 0 = no decline.
`covid_employment_recovery_status`	recovered / no decline observed / not recovered during observation period.
`covid_recovery_source`	QCEW_monthly, or BDS March 2022/2023 fallback where the QCEW series ended at 2021Q4.
`covid_series_spliced_across_naics_2022`	True if the QCEW series continues into 2022+ using a one-to-one NAICS 2022 code.
`covid_establishment_drawdown_pct`	QCEW quarterly establishment drawdown in percent (baseline mean of 2019 quarters).
`covid_establishment_recovery_months_from_2020q1`	Months from 2020Q1 to recovery; 0 = no decline.
`employment_volatility_sd_pct_1991_2019_ex_gr_window`	SD of annual % employment change, BDS, 1991 to 2019 excluding changes into 2008 to 2012.
`employment_cagr_2002_2007_pct`	Pre-Great-Recession employment growth, percent per year (context, not scored).
`employment_cagr_2014_2019_pct`	Pre-COVID employment growth (context).
`employment_change_2007_2023_pct`	BDS employment change March 2007 to March 2023, percent (context).
`sector_benchmark_gr_employment_drawdown_pct`	Whole-sector Great Recession employment drawdown (BDS sector table).
`sector_benchmark_covid_employment_drawdown_pct`	Whole-sector COVID employment drawdown (QCEW sector series).
`total_private_benchmark_gr_employment_drawdown_pct`	Total U.S. private employment drawdown, Great Recession (BDS).
`total_private_benchmark_covid_employment_drawdown_pct`	Total U.S. private employment drawdown, COVID (QCEW).
`universe_benchmark_gr_employment_drawdown_pct`	Summed included-universe drawdown, Great Recession.
`universe_benchmark_covid_employment_drawdown_pct`	Summed included-universe drawdown, COVID (series ends 2021Q4).
`flags`	Data-quality and classification flags (semicolon separated).
`source_years`	Years used by source.
`naics_version`	NAICS version(s) used.
`source_version`	Data release identifiers.
`calculation_version`	Version of the scoring code.
`package_version`	Research package version.
`run_date`	Run date, ISO.

business-buyer-school-industry-universe-2026.csv columns: naics_4, official_industry_name, sector_2, decision (include/exclude), criterion (U1 to U6), exclusion_reason, estabs_2007, emp_2007, emp_per_firm_2007/2019, min_estabs_2007_2023, min_emp_2007_2023, naics_2017_to_2022 (relationship), naics_2022_code (where 1:1), qcew_2017vintage_series, qcew_2022vintage_series, confidence, confidence_basis, flags, naics_version, run_date, calculation_version.

How to cite

Business Buyer School (2026). Recession Resistance Dataset 2026, version 2026.1. https://businessbuyerschool.com/research/recession-resistant-businesses/data/. Published October 5, 2026. Calculated from Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics (2023 release) and BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome.

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