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The Most Recession-Resistant Small Businesses to Buy
Business Buyer School 2026 Industry Resilience Study, full study · Version 2026.1 · Published October 5, 2026 · Prepared October 4, 2026
Key Finding
Business Buyer School analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics and Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW data found that, among 152 acquisition-relevant U.S. industries scored at High or Medium confidence, outpatient care, physician offices, medical laboratories, professional and technical services and several food and beverage wholesale and retail industries held employment best across the 2008 to 2012 Great Recession and the 2020 COVID shock. Health care was not uniform: offices of dentists lost 54.3% of employment at the April 2020 trough and offices of other health practitioners 21.2%. The five lowest-ranked industries were Book Stores and News Dealers, Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing, Consumer Goods Rental, General Rental Centers, Textile Furnishings Mills; none had regained its pre-shock employment by the end of the available data. Business Buyer School scores rank industries, not individual businesses, and do not measure profitability or business failure.
Key Statistics
- Business Buyer School calculated that total U.S. private-sector employment (Census BDS, employer establishments) fell 7.1% from March 2007 to its March 2010 trough, and that the 167 industries in the acquisition-relevant universe, summed, fell 7.9%.
- Business Buyer School calculated that 24 of 152 scored industries (16%) never fell below their March 2007 employment level during 2008 to 2012 (Census BDS).
- Business Buyer School calculated that the median scored industry lost 11.2% of its 2007 employment in the Great Recession and 11.4% of its 2019 employment in the COVID shock (BLS QCEW monthly employment).
- Business Buyer School calculated that total U.S. private employment fell 16.3% from its 2019 average to April 2020 (BLS QCEW) and took 20 months from March 2020 to regain the 2019 average.
- Business Buyer School calculated that 53 of 152 industries (35%) had not regained their 2007 employment level by March 2023, the last BDS year.
- Business Buyer School calculated that 14 industries were in the best quartile for both Great Recession and COVID employment drawdown; 12 were in the best quartile for the Great Recession but the worst quartile for COVID.
- Business Buyer School calculated that 29 industries stayed in the top quartile and 25 in the bottom quartile under all six scoring methods tested; 10 industries changed rank by more than a quarter of the list depending on method.
- Business Buyer School calculated that industry rankings under five alternative weightings correlate with the balanced model at a Spearman rank correlation of at least 0.94, so the ordering is not an artifact of one weighting.
- Business Buyer School calculated that industries that were growing before each shock tended to score higher (Spearman 0.40 with 2002 to 2007 employment growth and 0.39 with 2014 to 2019 growth). These are correlations and do not show that growth caused the ranking; part of a score may reflect underlying growth, not only shock absorption.
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Business Buyer School calculated that 60% of scored industries showed no decline in establishment count during COVID (BLS QCEW), so establishment counts carry little COVID signal and the COVID score rests mainly on employment.
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Business Buyer School calculated a Spearman rank correlation of 0.14 between industries' Great Recession and COVID employment drawdowns across the 152 ranked industries: how an industry fared in one shock says little about how it fared in the other. The two rankings also use different sources and baselines (a March snapshot from BDS for the Great Recession, a 2019 monthly average from QCEW for COVID), which may contribute to the low correlation.
Each statistic is a Business Buyer School calculation from official statistics. The underlying official figures are published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Business Buyer School performed all drawdown, recovery, score and rank calculations.
Overall Ranking
Business Buyer School scores (0 to 100, higher is more resilient) combine seven components measured as percentile ranks across the 152 ranked industries. Model A weights: Great Recession employment drawdown 25%, Great Recession establishment drawdown 15%, Great Recession recovery speed 15%, COVID employment drawdown 20%, COVID establishment drawdown 10%, COVID recovery speed 10%, long-run employment volatility 5%. Read the component columns first: the composite is a summary, and 10 industries move materially when the weights change. Tied scores share a rank and the next rank is skipped: 4441 Building Material and Supplies Dealers and 7211 Traveler Accommodation both rank 66, so no industry holds rank 67 and the last rank is 152.
Top 25
| Rank | Industry (NAICS 2017) | Confidence | Score (Model A) | GR employment drawdown | GR recovery (years from 2007) | COVID employment drawdown | COVID recovery (months from Mar 2020) | Stability across models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5239 Other Financial Investment Activities | High | 87.2 | 0.0% | no decline | 0.0% | no decline | stable top quartile |
| 2 | 5191 Other Information Services | Medium | 87.2 | 0.0% | no decline | 0.0% | no decline | stable top quartile |
| 3 | 5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services | Medium | 86.1 | 0.0% | no decline | -0.9% | 4 | stable top quartile |
| 4 | 4242 Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers | High | 85.9 | 0.0% | no decline | -3.5% | 7 | stable top quartile |
| 5 | 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services | High | 84.0 | 0.0% | no decline | -3.8% | 7 | stable top quartile |
| 6 | 6214 Outpatient Care Centers | High | 83.8 | 0.0% | no decline | -4.4% | 6 | stable top quartile |
| 7 | 6215 Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories | High | 82.6 | 0.0% | no decline | -7.6% | 6 | stable top quartile |
| 8 | 6219 Other Ambulatory Health Care Services | Medium | 82.2 | 0.0% | no decline | -4.3% | 19 | stable top quartile |
| 9 | 6211 Offices of Physicians | High | 82.1 | 0.0% | no decline | -9.6% | 8 | stable top quartile |
| 10 | 5412 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services | High | 80.7 | 0.0% | no decline | -7.6% | 10 | stable top quartile |
| 11 | 4451 Grocery Stores | Medium | 79.9 | -0.8% | 5 | -1.0% | 2 | stable top quartile |
| 12 | 4453 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores | High | 79.5 | 0.0% | no decline | -12.6% | 5 | stable top quartile |
| 13 | 4248 Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers | High | 79.2 | -1.0% | 4 | -5.0% | 21 | stable top quartile |
| 14 | 3119 Other Food Manufacturing | Medium | 79.0 | -0.5% | 3 | -4.3% | 7 | stable top quartile |
| 15 | 6216 Home Health Care Services | Medium | 79.0 | 0.0% | no decline | -6.3% | 20 | stable top quartile |
| 16 | 5616 Investigation and Security Services | High | 77.5 | 0.0% | no decline | -10.0% | 25 | stable top quartile |
| 17 | 5112 Software Publishers | High | 77.1 | -2.0% | 4 | 0.0% | no decline | stable top quartile |
| 18 | 3111 Animal Food Manufacturing | Medium | 74.9 | -4.0% | 7 | 0.0% | no decline | stable top quartile |
| 19 | 6213 Offices of Other Health Practitioners | High | 74.6 | 0.0% | no decline | -21.2% | 11 | stable top quartile |
| 20 | 5313 Activities Related to Real Estate | High | 73.6 | -4.9% | 7 | -4.1% | 8 | stable top quartile |
| 21 | 4245 Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers | High | 73.6 | -0.8% | 6 | -4.9% | 19 | stable top quartile |
| 22 | 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses | Medium | 73.0 | -8.0% | 5 | -5.3% | 3 | stable top quartile |
| 23 | 5621 Waste Collection | High | 72.8 | -5.1% | 7 | -3.0% | 5 | stable top quartile |
| 24 | 5617 Services to Buildings and Dwellings | High | 72.7 | -3.7% | 5 | -11.0% | 4 | stable top quartile |
| 25 | 5417 Scientific Research and Development Services | High | 72.5 | -10.4% | 9 | 0.0% | no decline | stable top quartile |
Bottom 15
| Rank | Industry (NAICS 2017) | Confidence | Score (Model A) | GR employment drawdown | GR recovery (years from 2007) | COVID employment drawdown | COVID recovery (months from Mar 2020) | Stability across models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 4512 Book Stores and News Dealers | High | 7.7 | -37.7% | not recovered | -62.5% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 151 | 3152 Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing | High | 10.0 | -36.5% | not recovered | -40.6% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 150 | 5322 Consumer Goods Rental | High | 10.2 | -36.6% | not recovered | -34.3% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 149 | 5323 General Rental Centers | Medium | 13.0 | -42.3% | not recovered | -24.0% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 148 | 3141 Textile Furnishings Mills | Medium | 13.9 | -32.2% | not recovered | -26.6% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 147 | 4422 Home Furnishings Stores | High | 14.2 | -30.2% | not recovered | -41.6% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 146 | 2372 Land Subdivision | Medium | 15.3 | -68.1% | not recovered | -11.4% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 145 | 4542 Vending Machine Operators | Medium | 16.0 | -27.1% | not recovered | -34.9% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 144 | 4532 Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores | High | 17.0 | -20.5% | not recovered | -45.6% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 143 | 4421 Furniture Stores | High | 17.8 | -28.1% | not recovered | -32.9% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 142 | 4531 Florists | High | 18.0 | -31.7% | not recovered | -47.2% | 20 | stable bottom quartile |
| 141 | 4483 Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores | High | 18.3 | -20.8% | not recovered | -46.6% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 140 | 5321 Automotive Equipment Rental and Leasing | High | 18.6 | -24.5% | not recovered | -29.5% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
| 139 | 3371 Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturing | High | 19.2 | -39.0% | not recovered | -24.1% | 20 | stable bottom quartile |
| 138 | 5111 Newspaper, Periodical, Book, and Directory Publishers | High | 20.3 | -33.4% | not recovered | -18.6% | not recovered | stable bottom quartile |
The full table for all 152 ranked industries and 15 unranked low-confidence industries is on the data page, with CSV and JSON downloads. Medium confidence rows are marked; read them with caution.
Industries Resilient in Both Downturns
Business Buyer School calculated that these 14 industries were in the best quartile on both employment drawdown measures (Great Recession and COVID):
| Rank | Industry | Confidence | GR employment drawdown | COVID employment drawdown | Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5239 Other Financial Investment Activities | High | 0.0% | 0.0% | stable top quartile |
| 2 | 5191 Other Information Services | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | stable top quartile |
| 3 | 5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services | Medium | 0.0% | -0.9% | stable top quartile |
| 4 | 4242 Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers | High | 0.0% | -3.5% | stable top quartile |
| 5 | 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services | High | 0.0% | -3.8% | stable top quartile |
| 6 | 6214 Outpatient Care Centers | High | 0.0% | -4.4% | stable top quartile |
| 8 | 6219 Other Ambulatory Health Care Services | Medium | 0.0% | -4.3% | stable top quartile |
| 11 | 4451 Grocery Stores | Medium | -0.8% | -1.0% | stable top quartile |
| 13 | 4248 Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers | High | -1.0% | -5.0% | stable top quartile |
| 14 | 3119 Other Food Manufacturing | Medium | -0.5% | -4.3% | stable top quartile |
| 15 | 6216 Home Health Care Services | Medium | 0.0% | -6.3% | stable top quartile |
| 17 | 5112 Software Publishers | High | -2.0% | 0.0% | stable top quartile |
| 21 | 4245 Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers | High | -0.8% | -4.9% | stable top quartile |
| 28 | 4236 Household Appliances and Electrical and Electronic Goods Merchant Wholesalers | High | -1.2% | -6.3% | moderate |
Great Recession Performance
Baseline March 2007; trough is the lowest March value from 2008 to 2012 (Census BDS). Official benchmark: total U.S. private employment (BDS) was 7.1% below March 2007 at its trough; total establishments were 3.6% below. Business Buyer School calculated these benchmarks from the BDS national table.
24 ranked industries never fell below March 2007 employment (drawdown 0%): 4242 Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers; 4452 Specialty Food Stores; 4453 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores; 4533 Used Merchandise Stores; 5191 Other Information Services; 5239 Other Financial Investment Activities; 5412 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services; 5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services; 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services; 5616 Investigation and Security Services; 6116 Other Schools and Instruction; 6211 Offices of Physicians; 6212 Offices of Dentists; 6213 Offices of Other Health Practitioners; 6214 Outpatient Care Centers; 6215 Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories; 6216 Home Health Care Services; 6219 Other Ambulatory Health Care Services; 6244 Child Day Care Services; 7113 Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events; 7131 Amusement Parks and Arcades; 7223 Special Food Services; 8121 Personal Care Services; 8129 Other Personal Services.
Smallest non-zero employment declines among ranked industries:
| Industry | Employment drawdown | Establishment drawdown | Recovery (years from 2007) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3119 Other Food Manufacturing | -0.5% | -4.1% | 3 |
| 5419 Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | -0.6% | -5.2% | 7 |
| 4451 Grocery Stores | -0.8% | -0.7% | 5 |
| 4245 Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers | -0.8% | -5.2% | 6 |
| 4248 Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers | -1.0% | 0.0% | 4 |
| 4236 Household Appliances and Electrical and Electronic Goods Merchant Wholesalers | -1.2% | -5.6% | 4 |
| 4884 Support Activities for Road Transportation | -1.8% | 0.0% | 4 |
| 5112 Software Publishers | -2.0% | -5.8% | 4 |
| 8122 Death Care Services | -2.1% | -2.2% | 5 |
| 4251 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers | -2.2% | -6.4% | 6 |
Largest employment declines among ranked industries:
| Industry | Employment drawdown | Establishment drawdown | Recovery (years from 2007) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2372 Land Subdivision | -68.1% | -51.8% | not recovered |
| 5323 General Rental Centers | -42.3% | -38.1% | not recovered |
| 2381 Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors | -42.1% | -28.2% | not recovered |
| 2361 Residential Building Construction | -41.5% | -26.4% | 16 |
| 3371 Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturing | -39.0% | -27.4% | not recovered |
| 4512 Book Stores and News Dealers | -37.7% | -25.4% | not recovered |
| 2383 Building Finishing Contractors | -37.0% | -24.5% | not recovered |
| 5322 Consumer Goods Rental | -36.6% | -33.5% | not recovered |
| 3152 Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing | -36.5% | -27.4% | not recovered |
| 3219 Other Wood Product Manufacturing | -35.6% | -19.4% | not recovered |
A drawdown of 0% means employment in every March from 2008 to 2012 was at or above March 2007. Those industries are tied on this component and separated by the other six.
COVID Performance
Baseline is the average of the 12 monthly 2019 employment values; trough is the lowest monthly value from March 2020 through December 2021 (BLS QCEW private-sector employment). Annual snapshots hide the COVID shock: the April 2020 trough is visible only in monthly data, and BDS (a March snapshot) records 2020 before the shock. Business Buyer School calculated that total U.S. private employment fell 16.3% to its April 2020 trough.
7 ranked industries never fell below their 2019 average employment from March 2020 on: 3111 Animal Food Manufacturing; 4441 Building Material and Supplies Dealers; 5112 Software Publishers; 5182 Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services; 5191 Other Information Services; 5239 Other Financial Investment Activities; 5417 Scientific Research and Development Services.
Smallest non-zero COVID employment declines among ranked industries:
| Industry | Employment drawdown | Trough month | Recovery (months from Mar 2020) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5179 Other Telecommunications | -0.1% | 2021-05 | 15 |
| 5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services | -0.9% | 2020-06 | 4 |
| 4451 Grocery Stores | -1.0% | 2020-04 | 2 |
| 5242 Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities | -1.4% | 2020-04 | 5 |
| 5622 Waste Treatment and Disposal | -1.8% | 2020-05 | 17 |
| 5223 Activities Related to Credit Intermediation | -2.0% | 2020-04 | 4 |
| 4234 Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers | -2.9% | 2020-05 | 16 |
| 5621 Waste Collection | -3.0% | 2020-04 | 5 |
| 5413 Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services | -3.3% | 2020-04 | 14 |
| 4242 Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers | -3.5% | 2020-04 | 7 |
Largest COVID employment declines among ranked industries:
| Industry | Employment drawdown | Trough month | Recovery (months from Mar 2020) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7131 Amusement Parks and Arcades | -76.9% | 2020-05 | 16 |
| 7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) | -74.4% | 2020-04 | 26 |
| 8121 Personal Care Services | -73.5% | 2020-04 | 39 |
| 4481 Clothing Stores | -70.8% | 2020-04 | not recovered |
| 4512 Book Stores and News Dealers | -62.5% | 2020-04 | not recovered |
| 7113 Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events | -61.1% | 2020-07 | 29 |
| 7139 Other Amusement and Recreation Industries | -59.3% | 2020-04 | 16 |
| 4533 Used Merchandise Stores | -57.3% | 2020-04 | 24 (annual data) |
| 7223 Special Food Services | -55.6% | 2020-06 | 30 |
| 5121 Motion Picture and Video Industries | -55.2% | 2020-07 | 20 |
One Shock but Not the Other
Business Buyer School calculated that these industries were in the best quartile for Great Recession employment drawdown and the worst quartile for COVID:
| Industry | GR employment drawdown | COVID employment drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 7131 Amusement Parks and Arcades | 0.0% | -76.9% |
| 7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) | -2.4% | -74.4% |
| 8121 Personal Care Services | 0.0% | -73.5% |
| 7113 Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events | 0.0% | -61.1% |
| 4533 Used Merchandise Stores | 0.0% | -57.3% |
| 7223 Special Food Services | 0.0% | -55.6% |
| 6212 Offices of Dentists | 0.0% | -54.3% |
| 7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places | -2.4% | -44.7% |
| 8129 Other Personal Services | 0.0% | -42.6% |
| 6116 Other Schools and Instruction | 0.0% | -38.3% |
| 6244 Child Day Care Services | 0.0% | -33.3% |
| 4452 Specialty Food Stores | 0.0% | -24.8% |
The reverse (best quartile in COVID, worst in the Great Recession): 3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing (-35.4% GR, -6.9% COVID), 4233 Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant Wholesalers (-32.2% GR, -7.1% COVID), 5223 Activities Related to Credit Intermediation (-30.8% GR, -2.0% COVID), 3211 Sawmills and Wood Preservation (-30.5% GR, -6.9% COVID), 5179 Other Telecommunications (-24.6% GR, -0.1% COVID).
The pattern is consistent with the two shocks hitting different parts of the economy: the Great Recession fell on construction, housing-linked and durable goods industries, while COVID fell on industries that depend on in-person contact. This is Business Buyer School's interpretation of the calculated figures, not an official finding.
Recovery Speed
Business Buyer School calculated that 35 of 152 industries (23%) had not regained their 2019 average employment by the end of the available data (BLS QCEW through 2025 for codes with a one-to-one 2017 to 2022 NAICS mapping; through 2021 plus BDS March 2022 and 2023 for the rest). The ten industries with the slowest observed COVID recoveries (among those that recovered; 2371, 5619 and 7223 tie at 30 months):
| Industry | Recovery (months from Mar 2020) | COVID employment drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 6239 Other Residential Care Facilities | 52 | -8.5% |
| 4853 Taxi and Limousine Service | 46 | -53.0% |
| 8121 Personal Care Services | 39 | -73.5% |
| 4251 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers | 33 | -10.7% |
| 3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing | 33 | -9.7% |
| 3353 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing | 33 | -7.3% |
| 6244 Child Day Care Services | 32 | -33.3% |
| 7223 Special Food Services | 30 | -55.6% |
| 2371 Utility System Construction | 30 | -11.3% |
| 5619 Other Support Services | 30 | -22.6% |
Recovery months for three industries, 4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Retailers, 4533 Used Merchandise Stores and 5151 Radio and Television Broadcasting, come from annual Census BDS March snapshots, because their monthly QCEW series ends in 2021 before employment had recovered. Their 24 months means employment was at or above the 2019 level by March 2022, the first snapshot after the shock, not that recovery happened in exactly the 24th month.
Industry Profiles
The table covers the 4-digit NAICS industries that contain common small-business acquisition targets. A 4-digit industry is broader than the trade a buyer has in mind. Treat each row as the industry group, not the trade.
| Industry (NAICS 2017) | What is in it | Rank of 152 | Confidence | Great Recession employment change | COVID employment change | COVID recovery (months) | Whole-sector COVID change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2382 Building Equipment Contractors | HVAC, plumbing, electrical and related | 92 | High | -20.7% | -12.8% | 13 | -13.1% |
| 5617 Services to Buildings and Dwellings | janitorial, landscaping, pest control and related | 24 | High | -3.7% | -11.0% | 4 | -17.5% |
| 8111 Automotive Repair and Maintenance | mechanical and collision repair | 68 | High | -9.7% | -19.0% | 16 | -30.8% |
| 5412 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services | Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services | 10 | High | 0.0% | -7.6% | 10 | -3.4% |
| 5242 Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities | Insurance agencies and brokerages | 35 | High | -9.0% | -1.4% | 5 | -0.6% |
| 6216 Home Health Care Services | Home health care services | 15 | Medium | 0.0% | -6.3% | 20 | -9.6% |
| 6212 Offices of Dentists | Offices of dentists | 33 | High | 0.0% | -54.3% | 12 | -9.6% |
| 6213 Offices of Other Health Practitioners | includes physical therapy | 19 | High | 0.0% | -21.2% | 11 | -9.6% |
| 5621 Waste Collection | Waste collection | 23 | High | -5.1% | -3.0% | 5 | -17.5% |
| 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services | Management, scientific and technical consulting | 5 | High | 0.0% | -3.8% | 7 | -3.4% |
| 5419 Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | includes veterinary services | 29 | High | -0.6% | -11.3% | 7 | -3.4% |
| 5324 Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental and Leasing | Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing | 75 | High | -12.6% | -17.4% | 25 | -10.7% |
| 3231 Printing and Related Support Activities | Printing and related support activities | 137 | High | -26.8% | -19.6% | not recovered | -12.5% |
| 8123 Drycleaning and Laundry Services | Drycleaning and laundry services | 126 | High | -15.8% | -30.0% | not recovered | -30.8% |
| 7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places | Restaurants and other eating places | 60 | High | -2.4% | -44.7% | 27 | -46.8% |
| 4411 Automobile Dealers | Automobile dealers | 115 | High | -18.1% | -21.2% | not recovered | -17.9% |
| 2361 Residential Building Construction | Residential building construction | 120 | High | -41.5% | -14.4% | 5 | -13.1% |
Total private employment for comparison: -7.1% in the Great Recession and -16.3% in COVID (Business Buyer School calculation from Census BDS and BLS QCEW). Industries not in the table are in the CSV.
Business Buyer School calculated that building equipment contractors (2382, which includes HVAC, plumbing and electrical) lost 20.7% of March 2007 employment, reached the trough in 2011 and regained it in 2018, then lost 12.8% in COVID, less than the 16.3% total private decline.
Business Buyer School calculated that services to buildings and dwellings (5617, which includes janitorial, landscaping and pest control) lost 3.7% in the Great Recession and 11.0% in COVID and ranks 24 of 152.
Business Buyer School calculated that offices of dentists (6212) never fell below March 2007 employment in 2008 to 2012 but lost 54.3% at the April 2020 trough, and that restaurants (7225) lost 2.4% and 44.7%.
Business Buyer School calculated that printing (3231) lost 26.8% of 2007 employment and had not regained it by March 2023, and that accounting and bookkeeping services (5412) never fell below 2007 employment and lost 7.6% in COVID.
Four-digit groups mix trades. HVAC cannot be separated from plumbing, landscaping from janitorial, or veterinary services from other professional services in these sources.
What Buyers Should Learn
- This measures how employment and establishment counts behaved across an industry, not how a single business performed. A resilient industry can contain businesses that failed, and a weak industry can contain businesses that did well.
- Establishment exits and employment losses are not business failures. An establishment can close because the owner retired, the lease ended, or the firm consolidated. This study makes no failure claim.
- Rank and growth go together. Industries growing before each shock tended to score higher (correlation about 0.40). That is an association, not proof of cause, so part of a high score may reflect the underlying trend rather than shock behavior. Health care and professional services were also expanding. A buyer should ask whether the trend, not just the shock behavior, supports the price.
- Industry results do not transfer to a business. Customer concentration, lease terms, labor mix and debt decide whether a particular business survives a downturn. Use the industry result as one input to the questions in the Business Buyer School lessons, not as a verdict.
- No profit, cash flow or valuation figure is in this study. Employment and establishment counts say nothing about margins, owner earnings or multiples.
- Two shocks are a small sample. The Great Recession (housing and credit) and COVID (contact-dependent services) are very different events. A future recession could hit a different set of industries.
- The first ranked industries are broad groups. Their strength may not apply to the small, owner-operated businesses inside them.
Methodology
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics (2023 release, 4-digit NAICS 2017 vintage-consistent series, 1978 to 2023) for the Great Recession and volatility; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, national, private ownership (monthly employment and quarterly establishment counts 2018 to 2025) for COVID. The industry universe is 167 industries selected by structural rules (not by outcome) out of 288 four-digit codes. Confidence tiers (High 118, Medium 34, Low 15) depend on industry size over 2007 to 2023 and data-quality flags. Components are percentile ranks; Model A weights are shown above; five alternative scoring models and a 3,000-draw weight perturbation test were run. Full formulas, exclusions, limitations and the red-team review are on the methodology page.
Data Download
The dataset behind this study is on the data page: all ranked and unranked industries (CSV), the industry universe of 288 codes (CSV) and JSON copies, with a checksum file, a field dictionary and the reuse wording.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, 2023 release: BDS program page; BDS 2023 time series tables
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: QCEW program page; QCEW data API
- U.S. Census Bureau, NAICS concordances 2012 to 2017 and 2017 to 2022: NAICS program page
Suggested Citation
Business Buyer School (businessbuyerschool.com), "The Most Recession-Resistant Small Businesses to Buy: 2026 Industry Resilience Study," full study, version 2026.1, https://businessbuyerschool.com/research/recession-resistant-businesses/full-report/. Published October 5, 2026.
Data: Business Buyer School Recession Resistance Dataset 2026, version 2026.1. A data license has not been published; short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome.
Please cite the website and the version number. Figures labelled "Business Buyer School calculated" or "Business Buyer School score" are original calculations from the public sources listed above; the source agencies are not responsible for them.
Take this into your own search
Industry research is context, not a verdict on any one business. These free parts of the school show how to use it.
- Write your Buy Box: set the type of business, size and hard exclusions before you search.
- Cleaning, landscaping and HVAC compared: how the same principles show up in three trades.
- See the curriculum or start free with Business Buyer School.